What a Trump or Harris presidency means for Silicon Valley

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What a Trump or Harris presidency means for Silicon Valley

With Silicon Valley’s stakes rising in Washington, the next U.S. president’s policies on tech could set the course for years to come. Here’s a breakdown of how Trump and Harris might shake things up across antitrust, AI, China, and crypto, based on their past comments and insights from close campaign watchers.

The takeaway

• Trump: Likely to roll back Biden’s AI rules, replace key regulators like FTC Chair Lina Khan and SEC Chair Gary Gensler, and possibly ease up on Big Tech oversight.

• Harris: Expected to keep antitrust cases in play, maybe with softer appointments, and could continue tech export restrictions on China.

Antitrust…

If Harris wins...Harris could continue Biden-era policies, especially on antitrust. Known for her California ties, she might appoint new antitrust regulators but would likely keep the current litigation moving forward. Her closeness to tech companies, given her history as a California prosecutor, could impact who she chooses to lead. Lina Khan, Biden’s aggressive FTC Chair, has pushed hard on mergers and Big Tech, creating a “chilling effect” on acquisitions, according to VC and strategist Bradley Tusk.

If Trump wins...Trump’s past approach has been mixed, from blasting tech giants for political bias to his administration’s antitrust probes. If re-elected, he’s likely to dismiss current regulators, but his stance remains somewhat fluid, especially given his recent, softer comments about Google.

Artificial Intelligence…

If Trump wins...Trump has criticized Biden’s executive order on AI regulation as stifling innovation and might repeal it. He’s won support from pro-AI investors like Marc Andreessen, who view Biden’s approach as disadvantageous for the U.S. Trump’s backer Elon Musk could also influence him on AI openness, protecting open-source models like those from Meta and xAI.

If Harris wins...Harris, a key figure in Biden’s AI efforts, would likely keep pushing for safety and international collaboration, possibly even accelerating policy coordination with other countries. Her U.S.-centered approach on AI safety and research collaboration, revealed at last year’s AI Safety Summit in the U.K., signals she could continue Biden’s regulatory framework.

China…

If Trump wins...Expect Trump to maintain his hardline on tech exports to China, perhaps adding more restrictions. He’s been vocal about tariffs and limiting access to U.S. technology in the past. However, he’s softened his stance on TikTok, seeing it as a competitor to Facebook, and might back off from banning it.

If Harris wins...Harris would likely extend Biden’s export controls and investment restrictions on Chinese tech sectors. With her track record of prioritizing tech security, it’s unlikely she’d ease up on China, especially in sectors that could enhance its military capabilities.

Crypto…

If Trump wins...Crypto advocates would likely rejoice. Trump has warmed up to the sector, calling for the U.S. to lead globally on crypto. He plans to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler, a crypto critic, and may even explore a strategic bitcoin reserve.

If Harris Wins...Harris hasn’t focused much on crypto, but she’s close to Biden, whose administration has been tough on the sector. Still, Harris might replace Gensler, especially since he’s unpopular across the aisle, which could open doors to a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment.

Bottom Line: Both candidates have unique stances that could alter the landscape for Silicon Valley, from who’s in charge of regulation to how they approach AI and crypto. For now, tech leaders have a lot at stake in 2024’s outcome—and a lot to watch as policies shape up.

Coding assistants are cool—but they're not your perfect copilot

AI-powered coding assistants like GitHub Copilot and OpenAI’s Canvas are being hyped as game-changers. Big tech loves them—Google says AI now writes over a quarter of its new code, and Microsoft claims Copilot handles nearly half of the code in files it’s switched on for. But for all the hype, coding assistants come with some serious limitations, especially when junior devs start leaning on them too much.

Why It Matters: Coding assistants might seem like the perfect shortcut, but they often lack context—think missing the discussions that happen in actual team meetings or lacking a sense of the bigger project picture. This can lead to bloated, redundant, or just plain wrong code piling up, creating a stack of technical debt that’s going to be a pain to clean up later.

The Catch: Data shows a definite quality dip. According to GitClear, which analyzed millions of lines of code changes, the rate of “code churn” (code that gets reverted, removed, or rewritten soon after production) has jumped by 39% since coding assistants like Copilot took off. Junior devs, especially, are dropping AI-suggested lines into codebases without much revision—leading to bloated, sometimes buggy, code.

What to Do: AI coding assistants work best on formulaic, boilerplate tasks—the kind of stuff that doesn’t require the AI to “get” the big picture. Companies like GibsonAI are using assistants for backend code that’s predictable and less prone to misfires. Some tools, like Sourcegraph, are also giving teams the option to customize shortcuts—so instead of getting generic suggestions, they get code tailored to specific company needs.

Bottom Line: Sure, coding assistants are helpful—GitHub Copilot alone was set to make $300 million for Microsoft. But these AIs are far from perfect copilots. Like all tools, they work best when you’re keeping an eye on the wheel.

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