Why A/B testing isn’t for startups...

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Ex-Googlers are learning the hard way: startups are tough

Leaving Google to start an AI company might sound like a dream, but for many ex-Googlers, the reality is proving much harder. Take H, a French AI startup that raised $220 million only to see three of its five co-founders leave shortly after due to “operational and business disagreements.” And they’re not alone.

Why are these startups struggling?

Former Google researchers are finding out that building a startup is not the same as working in Google’s cushy, research-driven environment. Running a startup means dealing with chaotic leadership dynamics, the pressure to generate revenue quickly, and the high costs of developing cutting-edge AI tech—all without the safety net of a giant like Google.

The big tech bailouts: With the hype around generative AI fading, some of these startups are being rescued by big tech companies. Adept AI got a lifeline from Amazon, and Inflection saw Microsoft step in. These aren’t traditional buyouts—they’re big tech snapping up talent and technology without the hassle of regulatory hurdles.

A wake-up call for investors: Investors who threw cash at anything with “AI” and “ex-Googler” in the pitch deck are now facing the music. The easy money days are over, and there’s growing skepticism about the real returns on these big bets.

The bottom line: For ex-Googlers, the message is clear: the transition from Google to startup life isn’t as straightforward as it seems. And for investors, it’s a reminder that not all that glitters in the AI world is gold.

Why A/B testing isn’t for startups

Startups are about finding hidden truths and navigating a maze of unknowns. Sure, Peter Thiel says every great startup is built on a secret, but it’s more complicated than that. It’s about constantly discovering what works and what doesn’t, and adjusting quickly.

The problem with A/B testing

A/B testing sounds like the answer—test two versions, see which works better, and boom, you’ve got data-driven decisions. But here’s the reality: A/B testing is slow, and startups don’t have the time or the audience size to wait for statistically significant results. Plus, life isn’t as simple as a single variable change. The real world is messy. Was it your new homepage headline that caused the dip in sign-ups, or just a slow news day?

Trust your gut and talk to people: Instead of relying on slow and often misleading data, talk to your users. Get real feedback. Trust the instincts you’ve built up from being in the trenches. Make quick decisions, learn from your mistakes, and pivot. In the fast-moving world of startups, your gut and direct conversations are often more valuable than a perfect data point.

The bottom line: A/B testing might sound like a smart move, but in the chaotic world of startups, it’s more of a luxury than a necessity. Trust your instincts and what your customers are telling you. Move fast, break things, and don’t get bogged down in false precision.